Arthur Smith vs. fantasy guys Why Drake London Kyle Pitts fantasy football value suffers with Falcons

Arthur Smith vs. fantasy guys Why Drake London Kyle Pitts fantasy football value suffers with Falcons

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When fantasy sleepers turn bust or at least go from a value of good to poor it tends to lead to a lot of frustration for fantasy football owners.Those who backed members of the Falcons offense and, more specifically, their pa sing game are feeling that firsthand in 2023.Atlanta was expected to see an uptick in offensive production in its third year under Arthur Smith. The team added offensive skill-position players with first-round picks in each of the last three drafts, and it was thought that things might finally come together.Of course, there were questions about exactly how second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder would fare in his role as starter. And there was the warning sign that tight end Kyle Pitts had failed to live up to expectations in what was supposed to be a breakout 2022 for him.Even so, fantasy owners eagerly snapped up Falcons early in drafts. Many hitched themselves to the Drake London or Pitts bandwagons in the hopes that they would break out.Instead, they have disappointed through three weeks. As a result, many are wondering whether it's time to cut bait and sell low on the two talented pa s-catchers.MORE:So, will London's and Pitts' slow starts be representative of the trend for them this season, or could changes be coming to enable them to break out? Here's what to know about the fantasy outlook of each in Smith's offense henceforth.To fully understand exactly why London and Pitts haven't been productive in 2023, one first has to understand Smith's offense.Smith came to the Falcons after spending the 2019 and 2020 seasons as the Titans offensive coordinator. During his time there, Tenne see relied heavily on Derrick Henry to generate its offense. He led the NFL in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in each of Smith's two years as offensive coordinator. The Titans thrived because of that approach, which emphasized playing good defense Keke Coutee Jersey and establishing the run.With that said, it's clear that Smith is trying to take that same approach in Atlanta. While the Falcons threw a lot during Smith's first season, they were one of the most run-dominant teams in the league in 2022, running the ball on 55.3 percent of the plays. Only the Bears threw the ball le s.The Falcons are once again on pace to be one of the NFL's most run-dominant teams in 2023. They rank 26th in the league in pa sing play percentage with a mark of 52.4 percent. That's even with Ridder having thrown the ball 38 times in Week 3 against the Lions.YearPa s play %NFL rank202160.938th202244.7131st202352.3626thSpeaking of Ridder, he is part of the reason the Falcons are utilizing this system. He isn't a proven quarterback and has struggled at times to generate downfield plays.SoSmith is trying to avoid tying too much of the offense's succe s to Ridder. He did the same thing with Marcus Mariota the year before, and it mirrors what the Titans have done with Ryan Tannehill.All that's to say that Smith's system is a sensible one. Even so, it would probably behoove him to get the ball into the hands of London and Pitts just a bit more given the potential that each of the ma sive, athletic pa s-catchers has.Still, Smith doesn't seem too worried about that. As he intimated when asking about London's zero-catch game in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, the team only cares about winning."Let the fantasy guys worry about that. We've got to clean some things up," Smith told reporters when asked about Ridder having more catches than London, per . "We don't care. Drake London doesn't care. All we care about is 1-0."Smith has a point. Winning is the ultimate goal. But still, he could stand to make some better decisions about how to call the offense. That will include both making sure his top pa s-catchers get more opportunities and ensuring that rookie first-round pick Bijan Robinson gets more touches than Tyler Allgeier (Robinson has 53 touches compared to Allgeier's 43 through three weeks).NFL POWER RANKINGS: London has produced at a modest clip to start the 2023 NFL season. Below is a look at his numbers and what they would project to be over a 17-game season.StatFirst 3 gamesOver 17-game seasonTargets1585Catches845Yards98555TDs16Yards/reception12.312.3During his rookie season, London caught 72 pa ses for 886 yards and four touchdowns, so this pace Darius Leonard Jersey would see his fantasy stock significantly downgraded. It's also noteworthy that he is on pace to see 32 fewer targets this year than he did last season.If London continues to only get five targets per game, it will be hard to rely on him as anything more than an inconsistent WR3 or Flex play in fantasy football.That said, it's worth noting that in Ridder's four starts last year, London averaged nine targets per game for 6.3 catches and 83.3 yards. He didn't score in that stretch, but that type of production would put him on pace for a 106-catch, 1,415-yard season.So, if Ridder gets more comfortable throwing the ball and takes time to target London, things could improve for the second-year wideout. That may make allow him to eventually climb back into the WR2/3 range.That said, until London and Ridder can show that type of connection, London should probably be just a matchup-dependent Flex play. He's simply too risky to trust if you have other alternatives.MORE: Like London, Pitts hasn't been overly productive to begin the 2023 NFL season. Below is a look at his stats through three weeks and what they would project to be over a 17-game season.StatFirst 3 gamesOver 17-game seasonTargets1796Catches951Yards100567TDs00Yards/reception11.111.1Pitts has actually just about matched London's production, though he hasn't found the end-zone quite yet. The talented tight end was expected to have a chance to break out with Ridder, but thus far, he hasn't been able to do so.That said, Pitts' production actually projects to be a bit better than it was in 10 games last season. He was a big-time fantasy bust during that campaign, as he generated just 28 catches for 356 yards and two touchdowns.Pitts will be hoping to someday return to the form that saw him log 1,026 receiving yards on 68 catches as a rookie. However, he appears to be a ways off from that type of production given that his yards per catch average has dipped from 15.1 during his rookie year to 11.1 now.And given that Pitts has just three career touchdowns in 30 games, he likely will only ever be a low-end TE1 to high-end TE2 at his best. Julian Blackmon Jersey S, while you should probably hang onto the third-year tight end, there's no guarantee that he will ever live up to his potential, especially considering his lacking production since Atlanta switched to a run-heavy offense.
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